谈我国内保安全机制的发展和保安业前景展望

我国于20世纪末历经了划时代的政治、经济的社会大交革,虽然犯罪率仍呈现上升趋势,但市场经济体制的实施却大大促进了保安业的迅速兴起。文章清晰记录了中国内保安全机制的发展脉络,50年代-90年代直至今天的发展概况和出现的新问题,以及保安业在高科技迅猛发展的今天所面临的巨大机遇和挑战,我国保安业已迎来国际竞争的时代,既充满希望又任重道远。     

Risk management for targeting customs controls in developing countries: a risky venture for revenue performance?

Customs authorities in developing countries are often reluctant to forget systematic inspections for fear of risking revenue loss. Such physical inspections however, impede rather than facilitate trade. Control selectivity is therefore a key issue in customs administration reform. This paper shows how a sophisticated risk management method can facilitate trade by automatically and rationally selecting transactions, with the end result of actually enhancing revenue performance. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The geography of pre-criminal space: epidemiological imaginations of radicalisation risk in the UK Prevent Strategy, 2007–2017

ABSTRACT

This article explores geographical and epistemological shifts in the deployment of the UK Prevent strategy, 2007–2017. Counter-radicalisation policies of the Labour governments (2006–2010) focused heavily upon resilience-building activities in residential communities. They borrowed from historical models of crime prevention and public health to imagine radicalisation risk as an epidemiological concern in areas showing a 2% or higher demography of Muslims. However, this racialised and localised imagination of pre-criminal space was replaced after the election of the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition in 2010. Residential communities were then de-emphasised as sites of risk, transmission and pre-criminal intervention. The Prevent Duty now deploys counter-radicalisation through national networks of education and health-care provision. Localised models of crime prevention (and their statistical, crime prevention epistemologies) have been de-emphasised in favour of big data inflected epistemologies of inductive, population-wide “safeguarding”. Through the biopolitical discourse of “safeguarding vulnerable adults”, the Prevent Duty has radically reconstituted the epidemiological imagination of pre-criminal space, imagining that all bodies are potentially vulnerable to infection by radicalisers and thus warrant surveillance.     

Crises and unpredictability in developing countries

Developing countries have suffered most of the financial crises in the context of the process of economic and financial globalisation. Both current and previous crises have revealed that unpredictability is a feature common to all the episodes which occurred during the process of globalisation. Although certain alarms went off, any of those external financial crises were actually predicted by the advanced methods in use for prediction and country risk analysis. Taking into consideration the information above, the aim of this paper is to check the ability to foresee external financial crises in developing countries of both the country risk index published by Euromoney and the Credit Ratings variable included therein. We have focused on the external financial crises that took place between 1992 and 2011, that is, in a full globalisation era. The results are negative. It appears that neither the index nor the sovereign ratings are able to reflect early enough the vulnerabilities that arise previously to the setting off the crisis episodes. This leads us to conclude that the existing models of country risk have limits. Thus, it would necessary to develop new instruments to measure this risk, considering uncertainty as an essential feature of the current economic and financial environment.     

涉黑涉恶案件审判警务保障风险解析与防控

涉黑涉恶案件审判的特殊性决定了司法警察警务保障风险表现为:未能将被告人安全、及时押解至法院,未能对羁押待审被告人实施有效看守、管理,未能保障法庭的正常审判秩序和人员安全,未能规范执行警务。为减少涉黑涉恶案件审判警务保障风险,司法警察应树立预防为主、艺术决策、多举并进、以警为本的防控理念,并加强远程押解、院外审判看管和值庭、规范化执法风险的防控措施。     

互联网融资创新、风险及其法律规制——以P2P网贷平台为分析视角

互联网金融作为传统金融自发改革、创新的产物,具有传统金融无可比拟的优势,但它既具备金融领域的固有风险,也具有互联网先进技术与传统金融结合而生成的新风险。对于这种风险,应该坚持"非法律规范—行政法规范—刑法规范"的调整位阶,以保护金融创新为监管的出发点。对于致力于信用担保的P2P网贷平台,应该对其资金池引入第三方托管,不应一概以非法吸收公众存款罪取缔。金融创新背景下,对金融管理秩序的垄断性保护失去了其正当性,对于非法吸收公众存款罪的解释,应该以公众财产权益这一法益为指导。     

产业转型中内部劳动力市场的优化对新生代农民工人力资本提升的影响研究

在经济发展新常态背景下,我国产业转型升级和经济增长质量都要求劳动力具备转型所需的创造性、技能性等特征。新生代农民工作为农村劳动力转移的主体,同时也是承担产业转型的直接参与者,这部分劳动力的质量对我国产业转型升级以及广大中小企业的可持续发展有重要的影响作用。但目前,新生代农民工较低的人力资本水平已经明显成为阻碍产业转型、技术创新、企业发展的主要障碍。因此,在分析产业转型过程中新生代农民工人力资本提升效应的基础上,着重从企业内部劳动力市场的机理进行分析,构建内部劳动力市场效率模型,并基于调查数据的实证分析,以探究内部劳动力市场优化对新生代农民工人力资本提升的影响路径。     

巨灾保险试点问题解析及对策研究

巨灾保险试点运营以来,在取得了一定的巨灾风险管理成效的同时困难也不断出现,因此,如何进一步推行巨灾保险,是一个亟待解决的问题。本文在论述以巨灾保险转嫁巨灾风险与自助、互助、公助的理念相契合,巨灾风险之"公众性"和"社群性"决定了巨灾保险政府介入的必要性和有限性,巨灾保险与大数法则的矛盾及其化解,巨灾保险试点运营存在的问题与政府介入的维度、方式及回弹性的基础上,对推行巨灾保险提出以下对策建议:设立"巨灾保险救助基金"和"巨灾储备金"并采取三级联保方式;推广和创新巨灾保险产品;通过扩大试点范围和强制保险等措施,解决巨灾保险试点运营存在的具体问题。     

Preventing Corruption Risk in Legislation: Evidence from Russia,Moldova, and Kazakhstan

ABSTRACT

Corruption risk assessment of draft laws and other normative acts is a relatively new instrument in the anti-corruption strategies implemented by developed nations, countries in transition, and the developing world. In connection with this, any practical experience accumulated in this area presents obvious interest. The analysis of such experience may allow to identify what works and what does not work in introducing the practices of anti-corruption screening of draft laws and other normative acts in various environments and settings, as well as contribute to dissemination of best practices in the countries of the region and elsewhere.

This article seeks to analyze and demonstrate the extent of practical implementation of corruption risk assessment of draft and enacted legislation in three post-communist countries, the problems encountered and solutions identified. Proceeding from this analysis, certain recommendations for practitioners in this field are formulated.     

Managing Social Risk in China Local Administration: An Examination of SSRA Initiative

Social Stability Risk Assessment (SSRA) sponsored by the local administration is perceived as a socially defined risk-coping initiative since it became mandatory in China. This article observes and unravels SSRA practices by selecting Xuzhou municipality as a sample case. Findings show that local SSRA is operated by the tridimensional mechanism and antecedents of its effectiveness in enforcement are linked with multiple elements of administrative supports. The findings contribute to a full understanding of SSRA in mainland China where there is no electoral democratic regime, and provide implications for developing countries alike. Some recommendations are proposed as a potential driver of these results.